The NFL playoffs are all set and ready to kickoff this Saturday with Super Wild Card Weekend. There are 6 games, 3 in each conference and I am here to break down who is going to win, by how much and why. All lines shown are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Chargers (-154) @ Houston Texans (+3) (+130)
This game was one of the easier ones for me. The Chargers offense averages more points per game and their defense allows fewer. The battle of this game is going to be takeaways. The Texans defense has been as good as any at taking the ball away ranking top 5 in turning opposing offenses over. The only issue for them is that Justin Herbert absolutely refuses to turn the ball over, finishing the year with an almost unbelievable 3 interceptions. The only real wildcard I see here is that Stroud was tremendous in last years playoff, and even after a down year, we could see that come out again. With that said Chargers 27-13, Stroud UNDER 230.5 passing yards.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+430) @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) (-590)
The ravens have been probably the best team in the AFC over the last month. Their offense has been unstoppable the whole year as Lamar continues to shatter records, but finally their defense has started to play the way we knew they could. They have dynamic playmakers in Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey and Madubuike, so it was only a matter of time. And on the other side of the coin, the Steelers have been abysmal over the past month, they have failed to score more than 17 points in that stretch. Granted their last 4 opponents have been the Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles, but that doesn't matter come playoff time. You just have to win. And while I don't think the Steelers pull that off here, I think the spread is almost laughable. This Steelers defense is as elite as it comes and they will be playing a division rival. Do not count out a great defense in the postseason. Baltimore 20-17, Lamar Jackson OVER 49.5 rushing yards.
Denver Broncos (+350) @ Buffalo Bills (-8.5) (-460)
Ahh, my Denver Broncos. Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. But here is what I believe. This game features two interesting QBs, one who most think is the league MVP and the other is Josh Allen. All jokes aside over the last 13 games Allen has had 3,342 yards 31 tds, only 6 INTs and a passer rating close to 100. Those are insane numbers, but in that same stretch, The Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has posted 3,435 yards and a 31/8 TD/INT ratio with a passer rating of 103. Since the quarterpoll of this season, these have been two of the best QBs in the national football league. But I believe the story of this game does not lie in the passers, but in the trenches. The Denver Demolition Crew has been wreaking havoc this year, bagging opposing QBs 63 times, good for first by 9 sacks. The gap between the Broncos and the Ravens in second is the same as the gap between 2nd place and 11th. However, the Bills offensive line has only seen Allen taken down 14 times this year. In this game we get to see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. I think if Denver's pass rush shows out and can get to Allen and affect his play, we may just see an enormous upset. Gimme the Bills 27-24, Bo Nix OVER 1.5 passing TDs.
Green Bay Packers (+198) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) (-240)
Josh Jacobs has really helped to level up this Green bay offense. Their ability to run the ball has really allowed Love to sling it downfield off play action. Then on defense the additions of Xavier McKinney and Edgerrin Cooper have been enormous. There have been maybe a handful of defenders better than the rookie edge rusher over the past month. The Packers are a great football team. But the Eagles. The Eagles made two massive additions this offseason, yet for some reason people only see one. Saquon Barkely obvioulsy made an enormous difference for this offense. I mean the dude ran for 2,000 yards. With that said the Philadelphia Eagles allowed 25.5 points per game last year. And now this year they are allowing 17.8, good for 2nd in the NFL. What changed? Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio. The man is a mastermind and finally gave the Eagles that defense that can actually take them the distance. Also the absence of Christian Watson is not to be understated, I don't see how Green Bay will be able to push the ball downfield effectively without him. They need Jayden Reed to step up big time to have a shot in this one. Philly 31-17, Josh Jacobs OVER 0.5 Anytime TD
Washington Commanders (+138) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) (-166)
This should be a really really fun game. I see two defenses that can make big plays, but not that can consistently stop good offenses. Both of these QBs should have big days. Jayden Daniels is likely the NFL's offensive rookie of the year, which, now that you know Bo's stats should tell you everything you need to know about JD5. He is an absolute animal, but most importantly, he has been in 4th quarters this year, which is what matters come playoff time. Then for Tampa, Baker has officially solidified his resurgence. This offense should scare anyone that has to defend it. When Godwin went down there was a lot of nervous energy on the gulf, but not from rookie WR from UDub Jalen McMillian. Since he has been inserted, the offense has not lost a step. The one-two punch on the ground from Irving and White has been tremendous as well. Overall a tough game to pick, but if you are betting, its hard to take rookies. Tampa Bay 34-31, Jayden Daniels OVER 49.5 rushing yards.
Minnesota Vikings (-152) (kind of @) Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) (+128)
This game has been without a doubt the hardest to predict for me. The Rams offense has been on a slide ever since that Buffalo game, and yet, in that stretch they are 3-1 and are now the division champions in the NFC West. Then you have the Vikings who are either the greatest frauds of all time or just the most diminished 14 win team in the history of football. Everyone finally agreed that Minnesota was for real, and then on Sunday Night Football, in the most watched game of the season, they got blasted off the field by Detroit in a 31-9 loss in which Sam Darnold looked absolutely horrendous. So it could go one of two ways here. Either The Vikings are overrated and a complete team like the Rams will reveal that, or the 14-win Vikings are an amazing and well coached football team coming off an embarrassing loss ready to grab a Ram by the horns. Either way I think the spread is correct. It will be a close game. Its the Vikings. It always is. I'll give the Rams the slight edge in this one, because I am personally just not quite at the point where I can trust Sam Darnold over Matthew Stafford. Rams 23-20, Cooper Kupp OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards
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